Iowa State Research Validates CDC Plan for Vaccine Distribution | Government-and-politics
According to the state of Iowa, to perform its analysis, the research team built a mathematical model incorporating the CDC’s four phased phases for the deployment of the COVID-19 vaccine, 17 subpopulations of people based on a myriad of demographic factors and 20 health categories such as vaccinated, susceptible, infected and cured. The group also incorporated other influencing factors such as vaccine reluctance, levels of social distancing and infection rates.
For each of the 17.5 million races, the researchers recorded several outcome measures, including predicted cases and deaths.
Research has shown that the CDC’s recommendations could have been optimized if more people with known risk factors for COVID-19 had been prioritized over people in their cohort without health risks. However, the gains would have been small – 1% fewer deaths and 4% fewer cases – and the model was unable to account for possible logistical challenges, according to the Iowa State report. .
“We don’t know enough about the situation in nursing homes to know how easy it would be to distinguish which residents have higher risk factors that would put them at the top of the vaccination line,” said Kadelka. âIt’s something you can do in a mathematical model, but it might be difficult in practice. “
The researchers said their mathematical model could be used to inform future vaccination strategies, whether related to COVID-19 or another future pandemic.